Running out

Posted by Paulette Simpson

Posted: June 21, 2009 - 8:54 pm

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Regardless of one’s personal politics, some things are just hard to argue. Like demographics.

A community’s population is increasing, decreasing or flat and the median age is either getting older or younger. That same population includes a revenue-producing workforce in the middle and on either end, school age children and retirees.

If the population is increasing and more people are working and spending money in the community, the expanded tax base can support additional government services: schools, public transportation, public safety, social services and infrastructure improvements. A growing population also helps keep taxes low for everyone.

Without a young and increasing population, there’s no steady revenue source for public services, salary increases or capital improvement projects. Without a growing population, the threat of tax increases rises and the possibility of losing representation in the state Legislature becomes likely.

At least some steady amount of growth is desirable, if not essential to keep a community financially healthy and moving forward.

APRN reported in March that over the last eight years Southeast Alaska has lost about 4 percent of its population - about 4,000 residents - more than any other region in the state. Alaska’s overall population, however, has increased by about 53,000 residents since the 2000 census with most of the growth occurring in the Mat Su Valley which has grown approximately 4 percent per year.

According to the Juneau Economic Development Council, Alaska’s capital city has experienced no growth since 2000 and our public school enrollment is down 10 percent since 1999.

Juneau’s never had the menu of employment options found elsewhere. There’s government, the Greens Creek Mine, a service sector that includes a regional hospital and cruise ship tourism. Unlike many Alaskan communities, in addition to property taxes Juneau has a 5 percent city sales tax, even on food.

Any day now the U.S. Supreme Court will decide if Juneau’s Kensington Mine can open and put a few hundred people back to work. If the mine doesn’t open there’s no backup plan to compensate for the lost jobs. Growing government is not an option and the loss of an estimated 146,000 cruise ship passengers in 2010 will only make matters worse.

It seems we may be running out of people and options.

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