Bristol Bay sockeye to dip in 2009

Posted by The Highliner

Posted: November 12, 2008 - 5:26 pm

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The Alaska Department of Fish and Game today released its 2009 Bristol Bay salmon forecast, and it calls for declining sockeye numbers.

State biologists predict a commercial catch of 23.99 million sockeye on a total run of 33.78 million fish.

That compares to this year’s catch of 27.8 million sockeye on a run of 40.4 million fish.

Bristol Bay, in Southwest Alaska, is home to the world’s richest sockeye run.

Forecasting the summer salmon returns is notoriously difficult, and often the catch comes in well above or below expectations.

Sometimes human factors play a big role. For example, this year’s catch might have been considerably larger, but processors suspended buying from gillnetters after plants became glutted with fish.

What accounts for the expected run decline next year?

Here’s a snippet from the forecast:

The lower forecast in 2009 is not unexpected. Ocean temperatures have been colder in the North Pacific during the past 2 years (2007 and 2008). Colder ocean temperatures usually result in reduced marine survival of sockeye salmon. We are not sure how recent colder water temperatures will ultimately affect the overall return of sockeye salmon to Bristol Bay in 2009.

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