Alaska Politics Blog : Ethan & Ivan

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Contributors

Erika Bolstad

Erika Bolstad covers Alaska issues, including the congressional delegation, from Washington, D.C., for McClatchy Newspapers. Before joining the bureau in 2007, she spent seven years as a reporter at the Miami Herald, where she covered politics, government and the state legislature. E-mail Erika at ebolstad@adn.com.

Sean Cockerham

Sean Cockerham writes about Alaska state politics. He's worked for the ADN in Anchorage and Juneau, covered the legislature for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, and covered Washington state politics for the Tacoma News Tribune. E-mail Sean at scockerham@adn.com

Kyle Hopkins

Kyle Hopkins covers rural affairs, general assignments and politics for the ADN. He covered the 2006 campaign for governor, has blogged extensively about Alaska politics, covered Anchorage city government and was a reporter based in the Mat-Su. He grew up in Southeast Alaska and previously wrote for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and Anchorage Press. E-mail Kyle at khopkins@adn.com and also find him on our rural Alaska blog, The Village.

David Hulen

David Hulen, the ADN's state and local news editor, is responsible for political coverage. He has been an editor and reporter at the ADN for more than 20 years. E-mail David at dhulen@adn.com

Features

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Alaska political corruption

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Ethan & Ivan

Posted by Alaska_Politics

Posted: October 24, 2007 - 7:21 pm

From Sean Cockerham in Juneau --

Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore sent the press a poll this week saying that Ethan Berkowitz would easily win the Democratic primary for the U.S. House if it were held now. Moore’s poll shows Berkowitz with 45 percent of the vote and neither Diane Benson nor Jake Metcalfe breaking 20 percent.

What Moore did not mention anywhere in the press release, though, is that he is working for the Berkowitz campaign.

Moore said Berkowitz didn’t pay for the poll (a client who didn’t want to be named paid for it). Moore also pointed out he’s made no secret of his ties to Berkowitz.

“Let’s face it, most people know I’m working with him and am close to him, I don’t hide that,” he said.

Besides, Moore said, “the numbers are the numbers,” and aren’t influenced by his relationship with Berkowitz. He conceded, though, he wouldn’t have sent the poll to the press if he hadn’t wanted everyone – including potential donors—to know Berkowitz’ numbers.

The poll shows Congressman Don Young beating his challenger in the Republican primary, Gabrielle LeDoux, by a two-to-one margin. Moore said his polling also shows that Berkowitz would beat Young in the general election, by a more than 5 percent margin.

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October 25, 2007 - 11:35am | chilcoot

Dave Dittman and Ivan Moore conduct scientific, objective polls. You have no evidence on which to slur them regarding their professionalism.

If you think these two only do push polls, I suggest you have no idea what you are talking about, let alone what a push poll is.

October 25, 2007 - 12:46pm | flabbyface

i doubt aaron will respond

October 25, 2007 - 8:57am | TheSdog

AKL

Polls should be meaningless.

The problem with campaign polls is you get attempts to sway the public with the poll. That is what Ivan Moore does. He hopes if he says it enough times it will come true.

Incidently, some guy from Seattle did a poll in the Lisa-Tony race just before it happened. He had Lisa winning by 6 points. That was pretty close. It is sad when some Seattle guy trumps Ivan and it also exposes what is going on here.

October 24, 2007 - 10:26pm | TheSdog

Dittman

is usually right.

Moore had Ulmer beating Frank and Tony beating Lisa.

Those were not even close. Ivan may as well ask if people prefer mashed potatoes or stove top stuffing. Maybe he could get that right.

I am sure he'll show up here to tell us he actually had it right and things shifted really close to the election. That seems to be the lymie's best defense.

C'mon Ivan...we're waiting.

October 25, 2007 - 6:48am | niklake

Dittman's late October 2006 poll

showed Young beating Diane Benson by six more points than he actually did. Many of Moore's polls have been similarly out of whack - barely at the edge of the so-called margin of error toward the side favoring the poll's patron. As a Benson supporter in 2006 and 2008, I'm not surprised at this initial poll on the primary. It is interesting how much effort the Dems are putting into this wide open race well over 300 days before people push their Diebold buttons.

October 25, 2007 - 8:52am | Stags_Leap

polls are propaganda

to a large degree. The 90% of voters who don't pay attention to the candidates and their campaigns until they get into the voting booth -only care about voting for a winner. And polls that suggest a likely winner are very powerful weapons on both sides of the aisle. Polls can also be used against you. Take Palin, for example. Say her approval ratings come in at 57% in the spring of 2008. That's still a good number. But the focus will be on the fact that she dropped from 90% to 57% - a whopping 33% points in just several months. That creates the perception that something is wrong.

Maybe I am somewhat off on some of the above statements. But that is my experience. In short, they are double-edged swords that can be spun a number of ways...as needed. The public should wean themselves off the poll numbers and pay more attention to the candidates and incumbents, focusing on what they have accomplished..or in the case of Palin, what they haven't accomplished.

October 27, 2007 - 9:41pm | volcanoman

C'mon Stagnant,

You wear out your little fingertips asserting propaganda is bad and then utilize repetition of rumors and propaganda to supposedly make a point. You know, repeat a lie often enough and.....
Then, your caveat is what Palin has not accomplished in the mere 10 months she has been in office.
Excuse me, you've been collecting your paycheck in the rarified atmosphere of the mayor's office just a little too long.

As I continue to assert and counsel the impatient and those who want to see this administration fail, it took at least 25 years if not more of political mediocrity to bring things to the sorry state of affairs the Palin administration inherited. This includes the Duncans, Dankworths, Sheffields, Murkowskis, ol' Tony and the list goes on.
The other side of that coin includes Egans, Hickels, Hammonds, Malones (Hugh), and your apparent nemesis, Sarah Palin.
Party affiliation is irrelevant to me except when it comes to demonizing someone unjustly who is actually trying to make Alaska a better place. Count Diane Benson in the second list as well.

I voted for Steve Cowper who found it quite convenient to leave Alaska after his administration's lack of pipeline and tanker oversight allowed the Exxon Valdez spill to happen, and what do you know, there was a guy at the top of his game who wouldn't stick around to live in his self-imposed infamy.
We're still living with the consequences of that Governor's four years of " Don't Worry, Be Happy" style of governance.

Your focus remains on only one myopic ideal: Democrats in power or else !!
Once again Stags, stop being jealous, contribute something positive to Alaska, and live with not what you wish would have happened in the last election or the one to come in 3 years.
The interim period is what most of us define as reality.
Try it sometime

October 24, 2007 - 10:13pm | tlamb775

Aaron ask Moore if this is true:

"..Moore said the poll was commissioned by Berkowitz and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee."

And if it was done before any filings were done with the FEC and the State of Alaska. It's that "grey" area.

October 24, 2007 - 9:57pm | flabbyface

no, I don't believe you say

no, I don't believe you say the same about Dittman.

Do you have some evidence to say otherwise?

October 24, 2007 - 10:09pm | Lysander_Spooner

Dittman is a shill

Punch his name into APOC's database of campaign contributors. All the evidence you need is there.

October 25, 2007 - 9:49am | AK_Logic

Spooner:

Nice post, except for the fact you just completely contradicted yourself. Dittman’s numbers have been very accurate compared to Ivan, whose numbers have been off for years and in some cases almost 10 points off. Remember 2002 Ulmer vs. Frank?
So, define Shill?

If Dittman conducts a poll that proves to be right on, what is wrong with that?

Also, it's not illegal for Ivan or Dittman to give money to candidates they endorse.
(According to my APOC research, they both have their favorites)

My advice to you and others is to stop paying attention to polls and or political affiliations.

If you want the system to change: watch debates, ask questions, and remember to vote for the best candidate. Like Halcro in 2006, wait disregard, vote for a D or R despite their flaws and inability to answer basic questions in regard to our States economic future. NOT!

October 25, 2007 - 10:08am | akgen

good grief Icky_logic..

contradicting yourself? Just thought someone should remind you that a mere hour ago you stated: "(not that I really care because I think polls are pretty meaningless, especially in this State)".

meaningless is what you state, but you sure got lots to say... good grief, get over yourself.

I'd rather read some of your "Icky_logic For Govenor" posts.

October 25, 2007 - 10:31am | AK_Logic

AKGen:

Gen, I see you are back to your stalking ways...

Allow me to explain:
I found spooner’s post to be a contradiction given the accuracy of Dittman’s statewide poll numbers the past 10 years.
(Poll numbers, which yes, I AK_Logic) think are meaningless.
I also laughed when I read spooner's attempt to single out Dittman for giving campaign contributions, when both Dittman and Ivan do this.
The fact I had to re-explain this to you is troubling.

Also: When I said polls are meaningless, it wasn’t a shot at Ivan or Dittman, because I feel some (non election specific) poll numbers do help the companies that pay for them.
I believe the only true poll in regard to our election system that matters is: the Election itself.

BTW: Can I get the 2 minutes back I wasted typing this to you?

October 25, 2007 - 10:34am | akgen

I'd rather read some of your "Icky_logic For Govenor" posts.

October 25, 2007 - 11:23am | AK_Logic

Gen?

I don't get it...

October 25, 2007 - 11:34am | akgen

Icky,

"My advice to you and others is to stop paying attention to polls and or political affiliations..." and those are your own words, yet you still seem to have lots of comments about the polls AND clearly pay attention to them. Kind of contridicting (sp) yourself are you not?

and

I'd rather read some of your "Icky_logic for Govenor" posts...

October 24, 2007 - 10:19pm | flabbyface

Evidence for what? That he

Evidence for what?

That he contributes to campaigns?

Is that how you define a shill?

Why don't we instead look at his polls to see if they are accurate or not.

3 October 24, 2007 - 9:03pm | joyce_brothers

eeeeewwwww, Ivan Moore and Ethan Berkowitz are slimey

This just in, Ethan Berkowitz's wife says that he has a 99% approval rating in her latest poll. Her opinion is not biased at all. Even though she is married to the man, she was completely objective in her assessment. "Ethan is the bees knees," she was quoted as saying.

Look for Ivan Moore to distribute this new Ethan's wife's approval poll to ADN, Politico, CNN, Time Magazine, and anyone else willing to print a garbage poll. Thank you Kyle for pointing out what others in the media haven't. Which is, that this poll is tainted.

2 October 24, 2007 - 9:33pm | tlamb775

The DCCC perhaps?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6381.html

"...The poll, conducted by Ivan Moore Research, shows Young trailing former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, 51 percent to 46 percent. The poll was conducted in early August, but was released this past weekend, shortly after Berkowitz formally entered the race. Moore said the poll was commissioned by Berkowitz and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee."

Is this the same poll or are there a bunch of them out there? Berkowitz commissioned with the DCCC, a poll before declaring a run? Nice..... if true.

http://www.ethanberkowitz.com/pdf/20071010pressrelease.pdf

Is something missing here?

1 October 24, 2007 - 6:49pm | robin_sparkles

OMG a shill working in the Berkowitz campaign ?!? <gasp!>

Like I'm so sure it's a "representative sample" of voters; perhaps "Dr." Ivan Moore would submit his methodology for peer review and validation so we could all see exactly where those "numbers" come from; LOL, what a tool! Anywho, I'm totally curious about who funded it if not the B-man? A super secret fund source with absolutely NO agenda I'm sure...
RS