Here's a link to a poll by a national group called Rasmussen Reports out of New Jersey.
(And here's a disclaimer: The group is often cited in news stories as an independent firm, but I haven't verified that. In other words: who paid for the poll? Does it factor in all voters, or just those who will vote in the Republican primary?)
The group reports it surveyed 500 likely voters on the governor’s race, including head-to-head match-ups with the Republican candidates versus Knowles. They show Knowles beating Murkowski but losing big to Palin and neck-and-neck with Binkley.
Here’s an excerpt from their press release:
In the August 22 Republican primary Murkowski faces competition from businessman John Binkley and former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin. The Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Palin with 43%, Binkley with 30%, and Murkowski with 17% when likely voters consider a three-way match-up. Murkowski does badly with every group identified in the survey …
They explain their poll like this:
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 3, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Click here for the methodology.
So, uh, how about that Republican picnic?
Important warning about e-mails purporting to be from the adn.com staff.
4 August 10, 2006 - 4:29pm | quixoticneophyte
Rasmussen poll is newsworthy
Hey Russ - I understand that you want your candidate to win, and part of that job means spinning every piece of news that comes out, but your statement only revealed a lack of knowledge about national polls.
Rasmussen is far and wide regarded as a valid polling company.
Check out their website sometime. It's www.rasmussenreports.com .
If you want further proof, google Rasmussen, and look at all of the websites, blogs, and pundits that cite Rasmussen as a valid polling company. (And if you are really interested, count the number of state's newspapers that come up when you search for Rasmussen and polls under Google news. And if you really want more, check out some of the biggest races in the country (Lieberman/Lamont, Santorum/Casey, etc.) and you'll find that the media and candidates in those states quote Rasmussen as credible polling.)
Russ, I don't know who does your internals, but from a journalistic perspective, this independent and respectable poll is newsworthy. Sorry.
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3 August 10, 2006 - 2:01pm | akpoliticalanimal
I agree with Binkley
Except for the part that he thinks he's ahead. This poll tells us nothing. I will put $100 on Murkowski in the Primary and Tony Knowles in the General.
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August 10, 2006 - 7:28pm | JohnLocke
Murkowski will win general too!
AkPoliticalAnimal,
You are correct in saying that Murkowski will win the primary. But he will also win the general too, and we all know it and some power hungry people just don't want to admit it.
Binkley is right - polls mean nothing. I still don't want Binkley to win though. But if Murkowski were to loose, I would want Binkley to win then.
John
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August 10, 2006 - 8:30pm | akpoliticalanimal
Dream on
Power hungry people? That's Murkowski, dude. You sound like a friend of his.
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August 10, 2006 - 8:29pm | akpoliticalanimal
Dream on
Power hungry people? That's Murkowski, dude. You sound like a friend of his.
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August 10, 2006 - 5:13pm | gloriashriver
Municipal ordinance not ARP policy
With all of this talk about ARP policy and rules I must set the record straight. Everything I have read to date is incorrect. The reason people can not congregate at the front door of the ARP summer picnic is governed by Municipal Ordinance and not ARP policy. ARP does not have a policy disallowing sign-waving. Mr. Large should not have reacted the way he did, however, there have been more fabrications in this trumpted up incident than you can shake a stick at. The truth is the contract to lease the space from the Municipality of Anchorage Parks and Recreational facilities did not include the parking lot, sidewalks and front entry common area as such we were required to keed these areas clear at all times. In years past the ARP has always been forbiden from putting banners, signs and political parapharnalia in areas not specifically leased. All candidates were allowed to place signs, banners, balloons or any other political paraphernalia in the Norhtwest greatroom. Campaigning on Government property whether it be state, federal or local is against the law unless the specific property is leased for a specified time.
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August 10, 2006 - 8:42pm | akpoliticalanimal
Again, no one cares
everyone involved looks so dumb. so so petty. none of those people are competent to lead our state. we should be so ashamed of our party.
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2 August 10, 2006 - 1:02pm | thetrail
Binkley's response
Russ Kelly, Binkley's spokesman, sent this e-mail recently, in response to the poll:
(E-MAIL BEGINS)
This out-of-state media poll is not only dated and automated but it also lacks any demographic or regional cross tabs to compare its validity for statistical sampling or methodology? This poll is also inconsistent with our internal data. Judging by the recent attacks from the opposition it would appear that their data also shows John as the one to beat.
We are confident that John’s message of building a gas line that benefits all Alaskans, fiscal restraint, his plan for restoring citizen’s trust and confidence in their state government will continue to lead the pack on August 22nd.
Thanks,
Russ
(E-MAIL ENDS)
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1 August 9, 2006 - 4:24pm | quixoticneophyte
Palin is going to win!
--First, Rasmussen is a *very* respectable polling organization.
They do polls on everything from political races, celebrity popularity, and issue polls. They poll throughout the country, and are independent (so they don't have any of that Republican/Democrat conflict that so many of our Alaskan polls have). Unlike many of our Alaskan polls, these are not released to boost a particular candidate's campaign, but are designed to be as accurate as possible. That way, the company can say, "Look how accurate our polls are, and if you want, you can hire us to do a poll for you." They're drumming up business - this is their way of building name recognition for their company.
They are one of the few respectable independent nationwide polls, and for them to do a poll here in Alaska is quite flattering. (For future reference, Survey USA and Quinnipac polling are two other major polls that usually carry a lot of weight nationally.) Back in 2004, I believe Rasmussen had the best prediction record nationwide on the Bush/Kerry race.
Kyle, this is the most unbiased, scientific poll to have been published so far. It is *major* news and deserves an article. (And I would have said this even if its results had been different.)
--Second, the Evans-Novak Political Report discussed our Alaska primary. If you are interested in national politics, the Evans-Novak is a *must.* Not only does it have thorough analysis, but it is one of the most accurate national predictors of elections. The Evans-Novak report writes:
Alaska: Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) went in four years from being a popular senator to being perhaps the most unpopular governor in the nation, save for Ohio's Bob Taft (R). Of the three candidates in his primary, he polls the weakest against the Democratic candidate, former Gov. Tony Knowles (D).
Murkowski, who has paid the price for cutting government programs and for appointing his daughter to the U.S. Senate, will come in third on Tuesday in the primary against conservative former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin (R) and businessman John Binkley (R). Palin will come in first, and she is also the most likely to keep the seat. Leaning Palin.
Whether you like it or not, everything is in place for Alaska to welcome in a Governor Palin.
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