Here we go - a look at potential 2010 election matchups (and Palin popularity)

Posted by Alaska_Politics

Posted: December 20, 2008 - 1:42 pm

Comments (0) |

From David Hulen in Anchorage --

We all learned a thing or two about the accuracy of political polling in Alaska during this year's election. Short version: multiple polls were way off in calling the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. Was it some sort of Alaska version of the Bradley/Wilder effect (where respondents aren't candid with pollsters)? Does the unique nature of the place just make it harder to poll accurately statewide?

Whatever. It's not stopping at least one poll from jumping back in the pool and looking ahead to 2010. The left-leaning Daily Kos yesterday published results from a poll it commissioned from Research 2000, which did get a number of non-Alaska races right this fall, including the presidential election. The new poll sampled 600 likely voters statewide between Dec. 15 and 17. Kos founder Markos Moulitsas writes, "Alaska is far too entertaining politically to swear off, so we jumped right back in."

Among the findings:

> If a Republican primary were held now for U.S. Senate, it would be Palin pummeling incumbent Murkowski, 55 percent to 31 percent. In the general, it's both Palin and Murkowski over the two Democrats mentioned in the poll (Knowles and French).

> When asked whether Palin should be re-elected governor, 51 percent said yes, 33 percent would consider another candidate, and 16 percent said "replace."

> Palin remains a popular governor - 60 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable. That's certainly a slide since those off-the-charts numbers measured early in her term (one poll found an 89 percent positive rating in May 2007). And her positives have continued slipping since the fall (when Ivan Moore found 68 percent approval in September and Research 2000 found 65 percent in October). But as Moulitsas puts it, "She has a long way to fall before she'd be considered in trouble."

> A Young and Berkowitz rematch puts them neck-and-neck (Young up three points but within the margin of error) even though Young's negative ratings are way high -- 44 percent positive, 54 percent negative.

Full results here.

login or register to post comments