Alaska Politics Blog : Here we go - a look at potential 2010 election matchups (and Palin popularity)

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This is the place to talk about Alaska politics -- state, local, national. Public life in the Last Frontier has probably never been more interesting -- the governor is a national figure in the wake of her 2008 run for vice president, Anchorage faces a heated mayoral race, we have a new U.S. senator, and the usual hardball Alaska politics. Come here for news, tidbits and information, and join the discussion. We encourage lively debate, but please keep it civil and stay on point. Don't use profanity, make crude comments or attack other posters. Posts that violate the Terms of Use will be deleted. Repeat offenders will lose their ability to post comments.

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Erika Bolstad

Erika Bolstad covers Alaska issues, including the congressional delegation, from Washington, D.C., for McClatchy Newspapers. Before joining the bureau in 2007, she spent seven years as a reporter at the Miami Herald, where she covered politics, government and the state legislature. E-mail Erika at ebolstad@adn.com.

Sean Cockerham

Sean Cockerham writes about Alaska state politics and is covering the 2009 legislative session. He's worked for the ADN in Anchorage and Juneau, covered the legislature for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, and covered Washington state politics for the Tacoma News Tribune. E-mail Sean at scockerham@adn.com

Kyle Hopkins

Kyle Hopkins covers rural affairs, general assignments and politics for the ADN. He covered the 2006 campaign for governor, has blogged extensively about Alaska politics, covered Anchorage city government and was a reporter based in the Mat-Su. He grew up in Southeast Alaska and previously wrote for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and Anchorage Press. E-mail Kyle at khopkins@adn.com and also find him on our rural Alaska blog, The Village.

Don Hunter

Don Hunter covers Anchorage city government and politics. He is a longtime ADN reporter and editor and wrote for the Anchorage Times. E-mail Don at dhunter@adn.com

David Hulen

David Hulen, the ADN's assistant managing editor for news, is responsible for state and local news coverage in the ADN, including politics. He has been an editor and reporter at the ADN for more than 20 years. E-mail David at dhulen@adn.com

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Here we go - a look at potential 2010 election matchups (and Palin popularity)

Posted by Alaska_Politics

Posted: December 20, 2008 - 1:42 pm

Comments (0) |

From David Hulen in Anchorage --

We all learned a thing or two about the accuracy of political polling in Alaska during this year's election. Short version: multiple polls were way off in calling the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. Was it some sort of Alaska version of the Bradley/Wilder effect (where respondents aren't candid with pollsters)? Does the unique nature of the place just make it harder to poll accurately statewide?

Whatever. It's not stopping at least one poll from jumping back in the pool and looking ahead to 2010. The left-leaning Daily Kos yesterday published results from a poll it commissioned from Research 2000, which did get a number of non-Alaska races right this fall, including the presidential election. The new poll sampled 600 likely voters statewide between Dec. 15 and 17. Kos founder Markos Moulitsas writes, "Alaska is far too entertaining politically to swear off, so we jumped right back in."

Among the findings:

> If a Republican primary were held now for U.S. Senate, it would be Palin pummeling incumbent Murkowski, 55 percent to 31 percent. In the general, it's both Palin and Murkowski over the two Democrats mentioned in the poll (Knowles and French).

> When asked whether Palin should be re-elected governor, 51 percent said yes, 33 percent would consider another candidate, and 16 percent said "replace."

> Palin remains a popular governor - 60 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable. That's certainly a slide since those off-the-charts numbers measured early in her term (one poll found an 89 percent positive rating in May 2007). And her positives have continued slipping since the fall (when Ivan Moore found 68 percent approval in September and Research 2000 found 65 percent in October). But as Moulitsas puts it, "She has a long way to fall before she'd be considered in trouble."

> A Young and Berkowitz rematch puts them neck-and-neck (Young up three points but within the margin of error) even though Young's negative ratings are way high -- 44 percent positive, 54 percent negative.

Full results here.

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