From David Hulen in Anchorage -
Anchorage pollster/consultant Ivan Moore has a new poll out from 500 likely Alaska voters. While Gov. Palin's popularity remains very high - 68 percent overall give her a positive rating - Moore sees serious slippage among Democrats/progressives, a smaller but significant drop among non-partisans/moderates, and little or no change among Republicans/conservatives.
Here's Moore's e-mail, under the heading "THE HONEYMOON IS COMING TO AN END":
In a new survey conducted September 20-22, Ivan Moore Research finds Sarah Palin's positive-negative rating in Alaska taking a real hit, for the first time since Palin was elected in November 2006. The survey was conducted with 500 likely voters in the State of Alaska, for a margin of error of 4.4%. The track of the last five Palin ratings is as follows, along with a comparison point from January 2008:
The mid-July poll was fielded just after the Trooper Wooten controversy broke. The positive rating of 76% was down from previous measures in the 80's. Despite negative press from the Troopergate issue, the subsequent three polls through the end of September showed Palin's positive rating steadily increasing, and her negative steadily dropping. But in the last three weeks, we've seen damage, with a swing of 14 points from her positive to her negative.
Breakdowns by party affiliation and political ideology for the last two surveys are illustrative of the internal dynamics:
We're seeing the numbers cratering among ideological progressives and registered Democrats, probably indicative of the impact of the harsher tone Palin has adopted on the national campaign trail, and the growing fallout from Troopergate. Damage is also significant among moderates and non-affiliated voters, while Republicans and conservatives continue to be almost universally positive.
It should be noted, of course, that a 68-27 is still a very satisfactory rating. But it appears the days of 80 percent approvals in Alaska are over.