The Trail : A blog on the 2006 Alaska governor's race by Kyle Hopkins : Predict the future | adn.com

The Trail : A blog on the 2006 Alaska governor's race by Kyle Hopkins

About the blog: The race to become Alaska's next governor is on and it's about to get muddy. Grab your boots and follow the Daily News along the winding campaign trail.

Contact: thetrail@adn.com

Blog : Alaska Politics

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Happy trails - 11/8/2006 8:05 pm

Forty-two - 11/8/2006 8:01 pm

Election hangover - 11/8/2006 10:25 am

Tonight (updated) - 11/7/2006 12:18 pm

Full Moon - 11/6/2006 7:11 pm

Fishy photos? - 11/6/2006 12:08 pm

Smelly deal? - 11/5/2006 3:31 pm

Sunday best (part two) - 11/5/2006 3:18 pm

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Predict the future

Posted by thetrail

Posted: November 2, 2006 - 10:53 pm

OK, that was the last debate.
Who wants to go on record with their election night predictions?
Percentages, please

20 November 4, 2006 - 2:56am | arajack

Just had to take two 300mg zantacs

I fell asleep after supper and woke up from a horribe night-mare of some dark browed feature glaring at me. At first I thought it was the idiot that married my first wife and wanting me to take her back. My stomach is still in knots. After I sat here in a clamy sweat for a few minutes, I remembered that I fell asleep wondering why Dan Fagin declared support of Princes today, and not doing it Monday like he promised yesterday. Zap, it hit me. Sarah must have received poll info that she did not want to hear from Dittman, and must have called Dan for help, right now. My predictions: Knowles 41 Palin 39 Halcro 8 others (church of walking on hot rocks) 2. Knowles is Governor again.

November 7, 2006 - 12:53am | alasscan

I am soooooooooooooooooo tickled. Hey, that was a good entry there. I was about to become morbid reading black3 in the other blogs so switched.
Too funny. Thanks!
ok, Knowles 43 Palin 38 Halcro 19
and this would be too wonderful to contemplate..Benson 53 Young 47

19 November 3, 2006 - 9:21pm | flww2005

Andy and Sarah, Sitting in a Tree..

My election night prediction:

Andrew and Sarah will finally confess their love for each other, based upon the fact that they are both so gosh darn good looking, and will announce they are leaving their spouses and will be getting married to each other. Immediately. On election night. The wedding will be officiated by newly elected Governor Tony Knowles and the flowergirl will be outgoing Congressman Don Young.

One can only dream. And giggle.

18 November 3, 2006 - 8:22pm | captrichie

Sarah: 51
Toney: 38
Halcrow: 9
rest: 100-the above.......

17 November 3, 2006 - 2:34pm | franan

it is so few who post so often

The debates really didn't matter - most folks aren't listening. It takes no large brain to figure out that even highly intelligent people are quite divided about who to choose. People basically understand that nothing much will change whoever wins - and that is a very good thing about America. Believe in the consistency of the polls and the natural conservative bent of Alaskans: Palin 44% Knowles 41% Halcro 14% Rest of em 1%

16 November 3, 2006 - 2:08pm | mike_l

Little People endorse Knowles

the little people have endorsed Knowles for Governor.

The "Geow-lud-mo-sis-eg" also called “Yunwi Tsunsdi" are small human-like people, about two feet to four feet tall, that reside largely in the wilderness around Bethel and Kotzebue.

These little people may have different appearances and, according to legend, they may be of three or four different types. Little people can be kind and helpful, especially to children, and can also play tricks on people. They can also be dangerous if a human intrudes on them, and they have the power to confuse the mind of a human.

The little people have the ability to remain unseen and invisible if they choose and generally avoid being detected by humans. But, at times, they will reveal themselves.

They live close to nature, in the forests and mountains. They have a spiritual aspect to them and they try to teach humans about kindness, joy and respect. The little people like to dance to rhythmic drumming and music.

The party is over. Knowles will win. The little people are never wrong. And if you think I am spinning a tall tale, just talk to some elders in YK Delta and the Northwest Arctic Borough.

November 3, 2006 - 8:31pm | Black3

your "little people" get to count the votes. Knowles already stole one election in rural Alaska.

November 3, 2006 - 7:44pm | lwilson

Your "Little People" post explains a lot about you rabid knowlesbots. Just a bit more than a little touched, eh? Come on there; it's not that bad. This election stuff will all be over soon, and you'll have 8 whole years to snipe at Governor Palin.

15 November 3, 2006 - 1:52pm | jmcgaughran

Knowles 45%
Palin 39%
Halcro 16%

14 November 3, 2006 - 12:30pm | turdball

Halcro 6%

Knowles 38%

Palin 53%

other 3%

I will bet Leslie Ridle a lunch on these numbers.

November 3, 2006 - 1:26pm | mike_l

does anyone find it odd that Palin was heaping praises upon Frank Murkowski in 2001 and 2002, and now doesn't know him?

He has one of the worse approval ratings for any governor EVER -and yet 4-5 years ago she was telling everyone that he was the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Talk about a judgment error.

November 7, 2006 - 5:53am | turdball

Who cares about frank?

His retirement party is in DC. He is outta here. Hell be back for family only. Then again thats his historical style.

November 3, 2006 - 8:11pm | captrichie

Lots of people were on his bandwagon, he alienated almost all of them/us. What we saw back then is not exactly what we got, was it???

November 3, 2006 - 1:39pm | GeordieBC

Wrong blog Mike

This one was for statistics only...but I can see you are feeling a little uneasy, aren't you? Wanting to get one more jab wherever you can even if it's off the topic of the moment.

November 3, 2006 - 1:48pm | mike_l

if we are predicting the future, a Vote for Palin, is a Vote for someone who was praising Frank in 2001 and 2002. Ahhh -the irony.

The old guard will not forget this disloyalty and lack of respect.

13 November 3, 2006 - 12:19pm | Peter_Doubt

Expect the unexpected

63 percent chance Murkowski surrounds the governor's mansion with Guard troops and doesn't let the new gov in.

21 percent chance a fight breaks out at the polls and Knowles somehow ends up wearing Sarah's hair extension and Andrew's glasses.

11 percent chance Murkowski ends up Miss Senior Taiwan following his farewell vacation tour.

64 percent chance Halcro claims having a conversation with Tony's dog during which the dog complained about the brand of food he eats.

77 percent chance Sarah claims a conversation with with the Arc Angel Gabriel during which Gabriel said, "You're a lock, kid. And by the way ... love your suit."

November 3, 2006 - 1:36pm | GeordieBC

ahahahah!!!
thanks!!!

November 3, 2006 - 12:43pm | justintime

Need the humor injected in this blog.

I have no idea about the numbers. Don't really care, just working the weekend to make sure the people I want speaking for me in Juneau win.

GO TK & EB, Crawford, Buch, Dalhstrom (she is a brick house - really!), Joe Thomas, Scott Kawasaki, and all the others who will REALLY stand up to special interests and not just say it when it is in fashion.

November 3, 2006 - 12:45pm | realist

28 percent chance

that Murkowski commandeers the jet and uses it to escape to Taiwan, with possibly some of his supporters clinging to the wheels.
What do you think he's doing there now, if not arranging for his exile?

12 November 3, 2006 - 10:10am | GeordieBC

What does Craciun say ?

Whatever my friend Jean Craciun says, I agree. She called the primaries!
Dead heat ? Mercy.
Litigation sure to follow.
Gosh, I hope she's wrong...but Jean is usually dead on right!

11 November 3, 2006 - 9:47am | Molly33

Alaska's future is bright

Knowles - 47%
Palin - 45%
Halcro - 8% (hope you to see you in 2010)

10 November 3, 2006 - 9:42am | gurfren

Wishing a brave new world

Prediction:
Knowles - 39%
Palin - 35%
Halcro - 26%

9 November 3, 2006 - 9:35am | tlamb99503

predicts a huge GOP turn-out as indicated by the lopsided returns on absentee ballots.

November 3, 2006 - 9:46am | mike_l

I'm giving you a timeout

okay tlamb99503, that's it. I'm giving you a timeout for that completely stupid comment, which is about the 632nd stupid comment you've posted here over the past two months. In addition, the timeout is for the terrible one-liners you keep posting here, like the Maytag repairman line. Very bad.

November 3, 2006 - 10:07am | tlamb99503

I got a chuckle out of the ADN and their endorsement.

November 3, 2006 - 1:35pm | mike_l

more than a chuckle...

let me quote the ADN:

"Mr. Lamb is a perennial school board candidate who has never won; he's more hobbyhorse rider than well-versed office seeker."

call that Maytag repairman.

DOOGAN DOOGAN DOOGAN

November 3, 2006 - 2:15pm | tlamb99503

This Hobbyhorse rider

gets the absentee numbers for his district.

Mike L, here is the deal, the Dems and you visit my blog and the ADN visits after your visits.

(You have been on it four times today)

The editor reads the brochure on the blog and goes awe %##@ he got us on the money angle.

Re-read the part about the polling and the turn out and you will get the picture.

Their endorsement is sort of like saying to the voters who voted, you don't know what you're doing.

BTW, I just mailed the 3,000 brochures to the U's and N's today.

Monday delivery. Mike L, it's all about timing.

November 3, 2006 - 1:28pm | mike_l

those R's are voting for Knowles

I have seen a number of Republican's with Knowles signs in their yards. A number of Frank and Binkley supporters are also voting for Knowles -or Halcro. This is a very unusual campaign, in that R's are voting for D's and in some cases vice-versa.

8 November 3, 2006 - 9:34am | mike_l

Knowles 44%

Palin 38%

Halcro 18%

Palin has a better likeability factor, but Knowles is viewed (and rightly so) as the candidate who is most likely to get the gasline contract signed, signed quickly, -and a contract with maximum benefit for all Alaskans.

Palin has an anti-oil platform, she has questioned their ethics repeatedly in the press, and she is surrounded by LNG and Prop 2 supporters. As such, the Big Three will NOT negotiate with her administration. Alaskans know that, and they will elect Knowles on Tuesday. This is the most important issue. This means tens of billions of dollars to our state over the next several decades. And this is just too much to risk on someone who is so advesarial with the industry. It is time to put partisan politics aside. Knowles knows best.

7 November 3, 2006 - 8:47am | Paxbro

FRONT PAGE ADN NOV 8

Palin------50.5%
Knowles--44.5%
Halcro----4.0%
Other-----1.0%

6 November 3, 2006 - 8:45am | hanson_noah

Palin - 46
Knowles - 41
Halcro - 13

5 November 3, 2006 - 3:53am | dunsmore

Ok here goes:

Palin 47
Knowles 44
Halcro 7
others 2

And for a couple bonus predictions:

Gruenberg 54
Moon 40
Kolhaas 6

Baffone 51
Johnson 49

Wielkowski (sp?) 50
Mayo 50
Wielkowski wins by a couple dozen votes

Roberts 52
Bunde 48

November 3, 2006 - 10:46pm | christineofkodiak

on Moffat/Buch or Hawker/Abney

November 4, 2006 - 5:51pm | dunsmore

I keep going back and forth in my head over these...

On the one hand I think Moffat's blatant and frequent carpetbagging will hurt him, but on the other hand he has had a significant financial advantage and it is a GOP leaning district so he might be able to edge out Buch. I think it will be either a very narrow win for Moffat or a significant win for Buch.

As for Hawker v. Abney, Hawker certainly has a clear advantage but Abney has a history of coming close to riding an unbelievable upset to Juneau. There will probably never be a year where voters are more inclined to vote Dem than they are this year for quite some time, so Pat just may pull it off this year.

Another question for both races: should Buch and Abney win, will the be able to hold the seats in 2008?

November 3, 2006 - 7:58am | akisok2

If I knew you...

... I'd wager you a beer on that last one. My prediction would be:

Roberts 42
Bunde 58

I like Macon a lot, and will be voting for him, but Con has some pretty solid support throughout my neighborhood. I'd be surprised to see him lose.

November 3, 2006 - 8:46am | hanson_noah

id have to agree, in Eagle River portion of his district, he has some solid support. The Exurban population is typically republican... I Highly doubt Macon Roberts will win

November 3, 2006 - 9:04am | dunsmore

Yea I know it would be a major upset...

but I'll look like a genius if I turn out to be right, right? I live in south Anchorage just barely outside of Con's district and other than seeing a single ad on TV I haven't seen any evidence that Bunde is even running. I just kind of have a feeling this district is ready for a big upset.

4 November 2, 2006 - 11:52pm | coldstrings

Knowles 45
Palin 41
Halcro 14

3 November 2, 2006 - 11:49pm | signwaver

prognosis positive

Palin: 47
Knowles: 40
Velcro: 13

2 November 2, 2006 - 11:27pm | trutheater

Election Percentages

Heads - 50%
Tails - 50%

Knowles calls Tails.

Knowles wins!

November 3, 2006 - 7:59am | akisok2

Thank goodness some people interject humor on this thing from time to time...

1 November 2, 2006 - 11:06pm | marty2

Palin 47
Knowles 42
Halcro 11

November 2, 2006 - 11:08pm | lewisandclark

I was going to predict Mike_I would be the first post here.

November 3, 2006 - 9:40am | mike_l

sorry - but Friday is donut day at the office, and that takes priority.

I was going to take a photo of a glazed donut, and send it out as a chain letter, claiming Palin was anti-donut.

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