UPDATE: Cick here for a PDF of the Dittman numbers.
Dave Dittman, the longtime Anchorage pollster who worked on Murkowski’s campaign earlier in the race, finished a poll on the Republican primary last night.
He says he surveyed people who are eligible to vote on the Republican ballot and voted in the party’s primary in 2004. (Except for a fraction – 7 percent – who have registered since 2004 and say they’ll vote Aug. 22).
Dittman says he didn’t conduct the poll for any particular candidate and that the sample size is about 500 people. His results are similar to the recent Rasmussen Reports numbers:
Palin: 40 percent
Binkley: 29 percent
Murkowski: 17 percent
Dittman writes: “Fourteen percent (14%) are still undecided with a week remaining before the election, however a demographic analysis of the undecided voters estimates that if the election were held today, Palin would receive 46%, Binkley 34% and Murkowski 20%.
Important warning about e-mails purporting to be from the adn.com staff.
5 August 17, 2006 - 9:39am | fitch575
I would like to see...
Dittman's raw data. Percentages mean very little to me. Besides there's several other statistical numbers missing from his data that he released before I start believing this poll, or any poll in fact.
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4 August 15, 2006 - 8:15pm | quixoticneophyte
ADN referenced on politics1.com!
The ADN's coverage of the Dittman poll was listed on politics1.com. I thought the first comment on the thread from "Leon County Democrat" was rather amusing:
"How does an incumbent Governor only score 17% in their own primary????? That seems impossible without being under indictment."
Well, we all know the answer to that here, but here's the question I still can't answer: Why did he ever run for a second term? Why not avoid the humiliation? Did he really think he could win?!?
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3 August 15, 2006 - 10:12am | fitch575
Disappointed
At this time in an election polls are just another political tool to sway voters. Not only do I disagree with it, but I'm disappointed with Dittman for doing this. I cannot fathom anyone believing he is "independent" and the "gold-standard" of polling.
Also, for the most part I have been happy with the conversations we have had on this blog. To go along with my belief in politics, lets keep it to the issues and not resort to personal jabs.
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2 August 15, 2006 - 9:23am | Anchorage_Activist
The Dittman Poll
Those who still believe Frank Murkowski can come back and win the Republican nomination ought to avoid submitting a urine sample to their employers for drug screening any time soon. Four major polls show Palin running away with the lead, except for the Hellenthal polls, which were the only polls bought and paid for by John Binkley.
In the final analysis, the Murkowski Meltdown can be best attributed to one deficiency - failure to communicate effectively. He did an abysmal job of explaining controversial issues like the Longevity Bonus and the "Jet". He spent such a long time in Washington that he forgot how to communicate with Alaskans at the grass roots level. It's a shame - he deserves a better sendoff than this.
With Palin now the presumptive nominee, it's time to give her the right running mate. Too bad John Binkley can't be her running mate - his campaign website is a model of quality staff work. Sarah Palin ought to put Binkley on her short list for a cabinet position. However, while Jerry Ward is a solid social conservative, he not only has skeletons in his closet, but some of those skeletons may still have bits of meat attached. Sean Parnell is a bit boring, but is clearly the better candidate, and I urge people to support Sean Parnell on election day.
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August 15, 2006 - 9:40am | thetrail
lt. gov.
Will this become an issue -- what each lt. gov. candidate means for the ticket in the general election?
I asked Palin yesterday who she'll be voting for in the lt. gov. race, by the way, and she declined to say.
-- Kyle
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August 15, 2006 - 11:57am | Anchorage_Activist
It Could Become An Issue
On his Monday broadcast, Dan Fagan was sure trying to make it an issue. He's strongly biased against Jerry Ward - refused to take his phone call during the broadcast.
Go back to the Dittman Poll. While only 2% of respondents were Very Negative about Sean Parnell, 13% were Very Negative about Jerry Ward. That's the key. Even Dave Dittman opined that while a Palin/Parnell tag team could win handily over Knowles/Berkowitz, a Palin/Ward tag team could possibly lose to Knowles.
Ward has too much hint of scandal associated with his name. Remember when he ran for the state Senate last time? He put up that mobile home in Kenai and claimed it as his "primary residence". That was simply too transparent and contributed to his defeat.
Sean Parnell's only real problem is lack of publicity.
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1 August 14, 2006 - 3:08pm | quixoticneophyte
Polls and Red State
--Although I'm not a very big fan of Dittman, I think the fact that both the Rasmussen poll and the Dittman poll are close lends credibility to their numbers.
Right now, Palin is in first, Binkley, and trailing in third is Murkowski. Interesting analysis on how that might change if Murkowski supporters jump ship. My guess is that they would go to Binkley, but that's all up in the air.
--The Red State review was disgusting. I identify myself as a conservative (and I usually appreciate Red State) but their analysis is *way* off. The author is a Murkowski former-employee who likes bashing the ADN, and it seems that everyone else is an Outsider.
Look, I have my criticisms of the ADN. But I'm not about to invent some crazy theory that Palin is the ADN's candidate.
Red State has a history of supporting the corrupt Republican establishment, though. Back in 2004, the few Alaskans on the site simply adored Lisa (despite her conservative primary challenger who is more in line with the views of the bloggers on Red State).
I think on August 22, Alaskans will teach a lesson to these Murkowski-RedStaters and the Outsiders.
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August 14, 2006 - 3:41pm | JohnLocke
Polls are wrong!! Murkowski WILL win!!
QuixoticNeophyte,
You can't believe the polls!! Rasmussen is an out-of-state polling organization. They cannot be trusted. Dittman is just trying to get revenge and tell Murkowski that he should have done what Dittman wanted.
The true conservatives at Red State are right. Murkowski is the only one who can beat Tony Knowles, and he is a wonderful governor! (If you don't like the word "wonderful" describing Murkowski, stop reading only the liberal ADN and start thinking for yourself!)
Palin and her supporters are a bunch of incompetent "neophytes." They can't even obey the rules at picnics, and now you want Palin to be governor!!
Murkowski will win, and then you'll be sorry for opposing him.
John
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August 15, 2006 - 5:58am | quixoticneophyte
Please, be polite or take it off the blog
Hey John - I understand that it might be hard to accept, but the chance of Murkowski winning this election is slim to none.
Even if you are still convinced that he'll still win, at least acknowledge the possibility that he could loose. It's an election; nobody is guaranteed a win.
I am sure that we all welcome your thoughts, opinions, and analysis. But please, if you are only interested in Palin bashing, please show a little bit more courtesy or take it off the blog and email me personally (quixoticneophyte@hotmail.com).
That said, Go Sarah Palin!!
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August 14, 2006 - 7:46pm | lauriejo_6
WONDERFLY INCORRECT ANALYSIS
John, I don't know where you get your information, but I think you should consider giving it back. frank is not going to win the primary, and soon he will be a lame duck governor trying to line up some lobbyist work, or maybe ambassador to Taiwan. Either way only you and about 5% of Alaskans will miss him. It seems that statistically you're the one who who needs to broaden your horizons in the area of information. I hope your still posting on August 23.
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August 15, 2006 - 6:30am | julia_thorne
Only Taiwan?
Ambassador to Taiwan? Can't we send him further?
I've heard Antartica has a climate similar to our Alaskan winter. Murkowski would be an ideal assistant there! :)
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August 15, 2006 - 12:17pm | QueenBee
Join the Club
I think the three of us have accidently made a club.
Ok I have to get back to work. UGGHH.
QB
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August 14, 2006 - 11:17pm | QueenBee
I second this!!!
I really can't believe how naive Johnlocke really is. A wonderful governor. I might be ill. I think this post was definitely needed. I guess it's nice the gov. has one supporter. GO Palin...
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