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Blog : Alaska Politics
Happy trails - 11/8/2006 8:05 pm
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Election hangover - 11/8/2006 10:25 am
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Smelly deal? - 11/5/2006 3:31 pm
Sunday best (part two) - 11/5/2006 3:18 pm
'It's going to be madness' - 11/4/2006 8:33 pm
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Furrowed brow - 11/3/2006 2:20 pm
New poll (updated) - 11/3/2006 2:00 pm
Berkowitz - 11/3/2006 10:29 am
Predict the future - 11/2/2006 10:53 pm
Live debate (updated 9:37 p.m.) - 11/2/2006 8:19 pm
More on the e-mails - 11/2/2006 7:14 pm
Channel 7 debate (updated) - 11/2/2006 7:12 pm
Round two - 11/2/2006 4:20 pm
Read the e-mails - 11/1/2006 9:45 pm
TV debate tonight (updated) - 11/1/2006 11:02 am
Anchorage Rotary debate - 10/31/2006 4:58 pm
Posted by thetrail
Posted: October 24, 2006 - 11:34 am
UPDATE: A poll by Marc Hellenthal is also showing a virtual tie between Palin (41.9 percent) and Knowles (42.6 percent).
That's with Halcro at 6.8 percent and 8.7 percent undecided, according to an Oct. 18-21 poll he conducted for lobbyist Sam Kito.
The margin of error is 5.9 percent.
As for the Craciun poll (see below), Alaska Newspapers Inc. is reporting that Knowles and Palin are both at 43 percent.
I'm trying to get the dates and sample size on that poll.
APRN is reporting the new Craciun gubernatorial poll, with Palin and Knowles in a dead heat with 8 percent undecided. (Alaska Newspapers Inc. paid for the poll, which shows Palin strong in Interior and suburban Southcentral, and Knowles strong in urban Southcentral and the Southeast, says Steve Heimel)
Click here for the story.
October 25, 2006 - 8:32am | ellebelle2005
Any accurate (or mostly accurate) poll doesn't just call supervoters but takes a random sample of the population and then asks them how likely they are to vote and if they are registered to vote. I haven't seen the questions for this poll or the sampling frame but I doubt it's as far off as you think.
6 October 24, 2006 - 5:25pm | rfn
Just for grins I bought a cheap clipboard today and went door-to-door in Wasilla polling as to gubernatorial preference.
Now one would expect The Valley to be Palin territory; something I set out to disprove.
To my total amazement:
Palin 48.3%
Knowles 40.1%
Halcro 03.8%
Other 07.8%
Amazement because I only visited dwellings with Knowles signs displayed on the lawn or in a window.
Could it be they're trying to build a false sense of security?
One confessed that he has a Knowles sign in the window because he dislikes the noisy upstairs neighbor who has a Palin sign in the window. The neighbor has to walk past his Knowles sign on her way home and it obviously upsets her.
I guess boredom is a terrible thing.
October 24, 2006 - 5:32pm | ellebelle2005
Walking door to door is not in any way, shape, or form an accurate way to poll. It creates systematic measurement error because the people who were likely to be home will differ systematically from those who were out at the time or refused to answer their door. Further, if you chose what houses and neighborhoods you went to, that creates further bias and room for error. Your door-to-door poll is only a reflection on the limited number of people you talked to and can in no way be generalized to the Alaskan population of registered voters as a whole. And you shouldn't be so amazed, it's quite possible that there are other members of the household who are still voting for Tony and that is the reason for the sign.
5 October 24, 2006 - 2:57pm | mike_l
that Palin's double digit lead is history, and the race is now neck and neck. With Palin averaging a loss of 2-4 points per week, Knowles is sitting in the drivers seat.
If the DEMS do a good GOTV effort, Knowles should win by 4 or 5 points. Hopefully they won't sit on this momentum, but will apply a full court press the rest of the way.
October 24, 2006 - 4:10pm | truthseeker
If that's the case, his campaign manager Patty Ginsburg sure didn't sound like it this afternoon on the dan fagan show. She was on there trying to sell the same story on the polls that the tonybots are on here trying sell on the blog.
Fagan asked her about the craciun poll "what was the size of the sample?" She had no answer. On hellenthal's poll, dan remindered her that he also predicted binkley to beat sarah by 4 to 5 points in the primary. (same prediction as mike L above, a mere coincidence or something more?)
Then dan asked her "well you must have done your own poll, what are your numbers showing?" She sheepishly replied, "Well we aren't going to report our own numbers"
"Why not?" dan pressed on. Lamely she replied "Well we are just using those for campaign strategy." Boy, that sure has to give you a lot of confidence.
Without seeing any polls, I am sure that the race has tightened up. I think reporting these polls are good. All the republicans sitting on the sidelines who were disappointed in sarah speaking against corruption in the party are going to have to come out for her. Their worst nightmare is a return of knowles.
So keep deluding yourselves with these poll numbers. No need for the d's to do much, tony's got it in the bag right? Or how did mike L put it? sitting in the driver's seat? I wonder what he thinks tony is driving. Must be a really old model.
October 24, 2006 - 6:32pm | realist
Didn't hear the show, so I can't comment on her performance. But the Craciun poll was not done for the Knowles campaign, so there's no reason why the Knowles campaign would know the specifics of poll size, error margins, etc., any more than anyone else. In fact, it would be weird if the Knowles campaign did know that stuff, because the Craciun poll was independent.
And I don't think it's sheepish to not report the results of internal polling. It's smart, it's professional and it's respectful of the public. Campaigns always keep that information confidential, or they should, just as businesses keep their market research confidential. In those rare cases when campaigns do release their internal polling results, it's widely seen as a blunt -- and maybe insulting -- effort to sway public opinion.
October 24, 2006 - 6:11pm | aktraveller
Anybody who puts any stock in his numbers must be smoking crack. That guy always shows his client winning. At the very least he always seems to be off by a large margin.
4 October 24, 2006 - 2:09pm | JGPinder
I have spent to much time reading the posts on the blog this morning, I have noticed that people on here complain more about the other candidate rather than extolling the virtues of the person they are supporting. The negatives on Tony are generally, been there done that, don't care to repeat. The negatives on Palin seem more to be of a personnel nature. I wonder if people posting on here would be as mean and nasty if they had to post there real names. You know, let your friends, neighbors, maybe your parents read the filth and hate spewing out of a lot of the regulars that post here. I think most of the people who post here would tone it down if their names were at the end of their posts. Give it a try.
October 24, 2006 - 3:02pm | coldstrings
You should be a hockey ref, JGPinder. Good whistle, especially after those poll results. Thanks.
I am curious. What is your opinion of the ability of the blog to persuade?
October 24, 2006 - 5:38pm | JGPinder
I think everyone who posts here already knows who they are voting for. There are probably a few lurkers who may be influenced but not many. It's just a great vent, I would hate to see it turn into a rant site for a few malcontents.
October 24, 2006 - 5:36pm | JGPinder
I think everyone who posts here already knows who they are voting for. There are probably a few lurkers who may be influenced but not many. It's just a great vent, I would hate to see it turn into a rant site for a few malcontents.
3 October 24, 2006 - 1:57pm | meadow
We just had the pleasure of attending the Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce debate and there were three candidates for Governor actively involved in the debate. Why aren't the three candidates for governor being tracked in the polls? Even if Andrew Halcro is not in the lead, it can be assumed that those who vote for him will be pulling votes from Palin and Knowles. I want to know how this is playing out. Does anyone have information on a poll that includes all three candidates?
The refrain I heard over and over as I left the debate was "I like Andrew Halcro, but I don't think he's going to win so I don't want to throw my vote away." If all those people voted for the candidate they believe is best, then we would actually dismiss "politics as usual".
Thanks,
Meadow Riedel
October 24, 2006 - 4:55pm | undeclared
I hear similar comments...and have said the same thing myself, Meadow. I take him seriously, but I am also glad we have a candidate with a sense of humor.
2 October 24, 2006 - 11:15am | mike_l
even if we pretend to be the devil's advocate, and allow for a margin of error, that "DOUBLE DIGIT" lead is history. The momentum pendulum has clearly swung in Knowles' favor with just two weeks left in the race.
What kind of campaign allows a 17 point lead to slip away like that? One that is disloyal to its own party principles. And one that is way out of its league.
1 October 24, 2006 - 11:12am | WillowRiver
With all due respect, the article on Sarah that was in my NEWSpaper today and yesterday would have been more appropriate had it appeared in Ladies Home Journal magazine. Please. Is it too much to ask our State-wide paper to do actual INVESTIGATIVE REPORTING on the ISSUES - not just some old friends recalling the sweet by and by of yesteryear?
We have the most critical governor's race in a generation staring us straight between the eyes in two weeks and yet we're served up loads of cotton candy with extra sugar thrown on top for good measure.
Hello ADN - Are your reporters not required to read your editorials? Did all of us in the State not read just last week the boys on the opinion page saying it's time to play hardball? All you served up yesterday and today was fluff, fluff and a whole lot more fluff.
It appears to me, more and more, that Andrew Halcro is the only one in this State with the -- (don't want to steal any thunder from Potty Mouth Palin) "gumption" to ask hard questions of himself, Sarah and Tony.
But my oh my does he get taken behind the woodshed and given a talk'in to when he dares to suggest Sarah hasn't a clue about critical matters of importance, such as Pt. Thompson (talk about double standards for how boys treat boys vs. how boys treat the pretty little lady).
No, Bob and Mark, or Larry and John, or whatever those morning gents are called, can't abide Andrew calling Sarah's bluff and not letting her wriggle out of yet another query with quaint, vague responses. Good for Andrew.
I feel sure Tony would play the same game of hardball but is probably trying to keep his hands free of what others rush in to denounce as "beating up poor Sarah."
Yep, I've come up with a name for all the boys in the State who are so drooling with adoration for Sarah that they can't think straight - the Sunshine Boys (referenceing, of course, her written (which makes it doubly bizarre) response about gas line negotiations - she wrote, we need, "more sunshine" on the matter).
Come on in Exxon, ConocoPhilips, BP, whoever else is out there in Corporate World, we jest elected Governor Sunshine to sit down and help us get our gas line - yep, our State's future is in the helping hands of Miss Sunshine - will someone please pass out the #75 sunblock before we all get completely burned to a crisp with Sarah's sweet version of "sunshine policy?"
Oh, but Sarah's not riding the Sunshine Train by herself, oh no. She's got lots of boys to help her, mostly on the radio, but quite a few at the local papers, too.
Our most consistent Sunshine Boy is good 'ole Dan Fagin. What a lovely chap he is. Have we ever been treated to anyone more conflicted in our fair State? I think not. Dan knows that Sarah will NOT be the best leader for Alaska - but he's so internally conflicted with Sarah's "amazing integrity and she's so nice" (clearly he's never spoken to anyone who dared crossed her and got to experience her first hand).
So even though Danny Boy can be counted on to correctly call all of Sarah's flips and flops - he ALWAYS comes back around to his tired little line about how Sarah is the paragon of virtue and integrity.
Poor, poor conflicted Dan. But we're still going to award him the Sunshine Boy of the Campaign Award because we know without him and his constant "Sarah is SO ethical and SUCH a leader and SO amazing" there's no way she ever would have won the primary.
This week's "Sun Shades Award" goes to Mr. Rick Rydell - who had a wake up call of his own personal conscience and hopped off the Sarah Sunshine Train yesterday morning. Thanks, Rick, for restoring a shred of my belief that a few men left in Alaska actually know when and how to act like men. I was afraid I was going to have to christen us with a new slogan, "Alaska - Where Men Emasculate Themselves So Unqualaified Women Can Govern."
October 24, 2006 - 11:22am | mike_l
Dan Fagan has been objective in this campaign, unlike the mayoral race. In fact, he has spent an entire show replaying the Palin "Bias...So Be it" clip over and over, much to the chagrin of the Palin pitbulls. He has pointed out her dumb moves and dumb statements. While you might not like Fagan or some of his prior comments, this is one Democrat who can honestly say he has been objective with regard to the Gov. race. Perhaps you also missed his expose on Republican Vic Kohring.
I used to drool over Palin too, until I found that she wore hair pieces and ate bear meat.
If you are paying attention, conservative Republicans in this state are supporting Knowles en masse. So give them a break for once.
October 25, 2006 - 8:54am | rtsinjuneau
Whether it matters to you or not if her family eats bear meat, the article about her on Monday, 23 Oct. references her father filling her family's freezer with moose and bear meat this fall. One could assume that means they eat it.
October 25, 2006 - 10:42am | rfn
Bear meat, properly mixed with moose, caribou, and (just for the fat content) pork, together with a goodly blend of spices makes a very nice sausage. I would submit, however, that bear meat, by itself, is a taste that takes a little time to acquire. But were Tony to get another 4-years, it is a taste that might have to be acquired by rural residents deprived of moose and caribou through looky-lou bias on the part of ADF&G.
Been there;done that.
There is one big hope!
That a new Tony-ADF&G might protect mosquitos as they once protected subsistence game. To near extinction.
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7 October 25, 2006 - 6:48am | turdball
Not a normal voting cycle Palin signs everywhere!!
Hellenthals numbers might be right on for voters most likely to vote, but this year is different.
This year will see record numbers of voters who have not voted in the past. So polls are skewed. There is a grassroots uprising in favor of Sarah Palin. One could consider straw polls throughout the state more accurate than a structured poll of supervoters or occasional voters.
Listening to people talk, Sarah Palin will win. By what margin? Doesnt matter as long as its by 1 vote and the recount holds.
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